“Past five years are warmest on record” (screams out the headline of this brief news paragraph in the Feb 14th 2o19 issue of Nature). The 1-paragraph article goes on to say:
“The average global temperature for 2018 was ‘the fourth highest on record’, according to separate analyses released on 6 Feb by the US National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Both analyses confirm similar findings from the United Kingdom’s Met Office and the World Meteorological Organization. NASA reported that ‘the average temperature was 0.83 °C above the mean for 1951–1980’. The years from 2014 to 2018 — rank as the warmest 5 years ‘on record’, and ‘9 of the 10 warmest years’ — in the nearly 140-year record that has occurred since 2005′. NOAA also reported that the average ice extent in both the Arctic and Antarctic for 2018 was the second lowest since record-keeping began in 1979.”
Any busy scientist reading these news items quickly would conclude “Wow, Earth is burning up; no doubt about it.” But, let’s dissect each sentence above: [a] “Average global temperature for 2018 was the fourth highest on record” —> This must refer to satellite data since the start of 1979. [b] “The average temperature was 0.83 °C above the mean for 1951–1980” —> This is true for surface temperatures because global cooling was occurring between 1955 and 1980. [c] “The years from 2014 to 2018 — rank as the warmest 5 years ‘on record’, and ‘9 of the 10 warmest years’ — in the nearly 140-year record that has occurred since 2005” —> This is a nonsequitor trying to mesh satellite data (1979-2019) with previous global cooling data measured by surface temperatures (1955-1980) and other meager masurements (i.e. very few surface-temperature-registering locations throughout the planet) since about 1880 — combined with “adjusting” the data (i.e. ‘cooking the books’, lowering previous temperatures during the past century to make it look like warming has continued in recent decades). The graph below represents this illegal “adjustment”, as previously described by the 8 Mar 2o19 GEITP email:
Image result for average ushcn temperatures
Comparison of “Reported” vs “Measured” global atmospheric temperatures over the past century. Data are from “all NOAA U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations” [taken from the ‘Climate Change Reconsidered’ series, Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels — written by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC); 5th edition; 768 pp, published January 2019].
NASA, NOAA et al. always use surface-temperature compilations — which produce a pseudo-global temperature that they have found easier to manipulate. The only global temperatures come from NASA satellites via two contractors: University of Alabama Huntsville (Prof. Roy Spencer) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), Santa Rosa, California; UAH is scientific, whereas RSS promotes hype and hysteria (RSS at first reported much the same analysis as UAH, until RSS realized that the satellite data “were not keeping up with their global warming hypothesis”). Therefore, climate scientists only use Dr. Spencer’s UAH website:
Roy Spencer, PhD
As anyone can see — the Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for Feb 2019 was +0.36°C — essentially unchanged from the Jan 2019 value of +0.37°C:
As far as the “last five years are the warmest on record”, this is <
— with a +0.64°C overall cumulative change between Jan 1979 (—0.28°C) and Feb 2019 (+0.36°C), consistent with warming caused by natural sources:
Dr. Roy Spencer continuously presents the official results for NASA (not the ‘cooked books’ version); he also provides a lot of useful commentary each week.
Before the “1955-80 global cooling period”, it is worth mentioning that 1920-1955 was a global warming period, which was warmer than the 1980-1999 global warming period (further proof that ice-core measurements of atmospheric CO2, rising since 1750, have no direct impact on temperature):
Lastly, the 1-paragraph news item in Nature says: [d] “the average ice extent in both the Arctic and Antarctic for 2018 was the second lowest since record-keeping began in 1979” —> This is simply not true. The Arctic ice volume had been decreasing from 1980 until 2011 (consistent with global warming that was occurring), after which it has increased due to several severe winters. The Antarctic ice volume is currently the highest it has been since satellite measurements began (Jan 1979). And no reliable data on polar ice volumes exist before satellite measurements. 🙁
Nature 14 Feb 2o19; 566: 158